Balrampur Chini: Bottom fishing (A study of range shift in RSI)
I am back with a post after a long period of dormancy. I was never off practising TA but wasn’t writing about it for various reasons (like laziness). But now it’s time to dust our sleeves and get back to business.
I have spotted a compelling chart which really got me out of the dormant state and urged me to post about it!
That stock is Balrampur Chini!
Please refer to the chart below:
I am a huge fan of the momentum indicator – Relative Strength Index (RSI) and it was RSI’s range shift phenomenon which has drawn my attention to the chart of Balrampur Chini.
In the above chart, you will notice arrows marking the beginning of major rallies. These arrows are actually highlighting the range shift in RSI – the phenomenon wherein RSI breaches the overbought zone of 60 to indicate higher momentum in the stock at relative price lows and at the end of corrections. This change in stock participant’s momentum- where the buying momentum supersedes the selling momentum, is captured by RSI beautifully.
On the chart we can see that out of the past 4 instances, only one instance has been a failure where the range shift ‘s indication of a rally failed. Some might argue that the sample size of the observations is too less to conclude the range shift phenomenon to be any good in the above case. If you’re one of those people then I advise you check out the older data of the stock and you will see the answer for yourself. There are more hits than misses.
The misses (indicated by the red arrow on the chart) have very distinct characteristic to themselves. Everytime the RSI has breached the level 60 soon after breaching the oversold level of 30 deeply, has lead to a failed rally. Basically, range shift works both ways. If you have RSI racing past 60 after a sluggish move where it held its nose above 30, then that gives a good indication of an impending rally, but the same move after a deep dive below the level of 30 just indicates shortness of breath and a bad (failed) rally.
To add to the above observation, the stock has also successfully made a higher high and a higher low which indicates uptrend. It is currently resting at the kissing point of the 35 and 50EMA. A crossover of the 50EMA above the 35EMA would make me more comfortable with this upmove.
If you look very closely, there has been alot of volume activity near the bottom of the chart just before the higher highs and higher lows came into the picture (literally). This for me is an indication of accumulation by big cats (the guys who knows the whats and whens before everyone else).
The stock also resisted the 100EMA (blue line) is the last rally so naturally moving above this level would be a confirmation of the rally and trend change.
I am expecting a 100% rally in this super cyclical stock post confirmation. Also, a breach of the previous low (59.70) is an exit for me.
As a disclaimer, this isn’t a stock recommendation but a mere observation of a great phenomenon unfolding on the chart. Another disclaimer: I am long on Balrampur Chini. A warning: Anyone investing in Balrampur Chini based on this article is doing so at their own risk. Please be responsible.
The above observation is purely technical. Anyone with a fundamental insight on Balrampur Chini is invited to share the same, we can put up a collaborated article ( no pay for that :p). I will myself try to come out with some fundamental insights (only if I get the time, no promises). You can reach me at firstname.lastname@example.org for the analysis of other stocks (NSE, NYSE, LSE as long as there is a chart), commodities or currencies, I will try my best to respond.
Until next time, Adios! 😀
Footnote : The article was published before rally witnessed in Balrampur Chini today. It close 5% above yesterday’s closing.