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NIFTY: Its time to take a break!

Hello again!

I’m back to my Blog after ages. Lets recap the events which have happend in the 5 months of unintentional gap since my last blog post on 28th Jan, 15.

In my first post written on MONDAY, 15 DECEMBER 2014, “ELLIOT WAVE COUNT FOR NIFTY SPOT!“,   I’d written, “

 According to my analysis, Nifty has finished its major 5 wave up-move and is set to finish the 3 wave A-B-C correction. As per the Elliot rules, the correction normally ends at the end of second inter-wave of the wave 5 which lies at 8000. Hence I am holding 8000 as the target for this correction. Now this should be interfered by a minor bounce-back  to justify the A-B-C format of the corrective wave.

…and we’ve witnessed that happening. Nifty has scaled the level of 8000, registering a low of 7940.30 and bounced back with fair strength. 

The long term picture of the Indian Market is attractive. Its a good time to invest in stocks. But what we’ll discuss now is the present and near future of Nifty. 

Please refer to the charts below. Nifty spot, Daily, Screenshot taken on 17th July, ’15. The red line marks an important resistance zone which has significant past importance. 

label 1 shows that 8630 has been a turning point in the past .

label 2 shows the occurrence of a gap at the level 8620 again.

label 3 shows that 8630 was a support during the slip from the high of 9000 , thus establishing its importance.

Given this , the presence of 8630 should pose as a resistance to the current rise in Nifty. 

The next thing to note are the blue lines which map the current path of Nifty and shows that Nifty has approached the upper trendline and suggests that it should now reverse to visit the lower trendline.

The labels at the indicator RSI merely show the shift in ranges due to change in the market trend. Please note, when nifty was in a downtrend, RSI refused to move above the level of 60(marked red line) , whereas in the current trend,we’ve witnessed a positive divergence between nifty and RSI and also RSI piercing the level of 60 with stability. 

The base trend remains up but we have evidences to believe a correction coming with a support at 8550.

NIFTY SPOT : DAILY: 17th JULY 2015. The chart given below shows a channelled movement in Nifty. It is different from the one in the above chart because the lines drawn here are parallel, and in my opinion more reliable. The first support lies at 8550, near the lower high formed on 7th july and the next sup at 8460.  In case there is sharp move on the downside there might be deeper corrections but the strong RSI does not indicate that happening. The correction can be in a form of consolidation as well, but the level of 8550 should be achieved in the process.

NIFTY SPOT : 2 HOURS: 17th JULY, 2015

Stay tuned for some stock analysis in the upcoming posts.

Thanks for reading!

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